Sporting Gijón II 1–0 Rayo Majadahonda

Sporting Gijón II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rayo Majadahonda

1/15/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sporting Gijón II49%

×Draw26%

Rayo Majadahonda26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Gijón IIExpected goals in this matchRayo Majadahonda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.04

Sporting Gijón II

1.54

Rayo Majadahonda

1.04

Sporting Gijón II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 72 away

1.63

creates per match

0.96

1.11

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Sporting Gijón II

1.63

Rayo Majadahonda

0.96

allows per match

Sporting Gijón II

1.11

Rayo Majadahonda

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijón II ↓

Rayo Majadahonda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sporting Gijón II or draw

74%

Sporting Gijón II or Rayo Majadahonda

74%

Draw or Rayo Majadahonda

51%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+

25%

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals

79%

Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals

45%

Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals

20%

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals

65%

Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals

28%

Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)

66%

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijón II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Rayo Majadahonda away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.46 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.63 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.54

Rayo Majadahonda attack 0.96 + Sporting Gijón II defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sporting Gijón II scores more

49%

level

26%

Rayo Majadahonda scores more

26%

Sporting Gijón II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff