Rayo Majadahonda 1–0 Sporting Gijón II

Rayo Majadahonda

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Gijón II

8/24/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Rayo Majadahonda45%

×Draw29%

Sporting Gijón II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rayo MajadahondaExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijón II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.87

Rayo Majadahonda

1.25

Sporting Gijón II

0.87

Rayo Majadahonda creates 44% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 27 away

1.17

creates per match

0.67

1.07

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Rayo Majadahonda

1.17

Sporting Gijón II

0.67

allows per match

Rayo Majadahonda

1.07

Sporting Gijón II

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rayo Majadahonda+0.00on par

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rayo Majadahonda ↓

Sporting Gijón II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Rayo Majadahonda or draw

74%

Rayo Majadahonda or Sporting Gijón II

71%

Draw or Sporting Gijón II

55%

Winning margin

Rayo Majadahonda wins by 2+

20%

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rayo Majadahonda 1+ goals

71%

Rayo Majadahonda 2+ goals

36%

Rayo Majadahonda 3+ goals

13%

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals

58%

Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals

22%

Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Rayo Majadahonda (draw refunded)

64%

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rayo Majadahonda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.07 · 69 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rayo Majadahonda attack 1.17 + Sporting Gijón II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sporting Gijón II attack 0.67 + Rayo Majadahonda defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rayo Majadahonda scores more

45%

level

29%

Sporting Gijón II scores more

26%

Rayo Majadahonda at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rayo Majadahonda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff