Sporting Gijón II 0–1 Llanera: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijón II

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Llanera

M. Mvondo 26'

11/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Sporting Gijón II48%

×Draw24%

Llanera28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Gijón IIExpected goals in this matchLlanera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.23

Sporting Gijón II

1.67

Llanera

1.23

Sporting Gijón II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 77 away

2.42

creates per match

1.91

0.54

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Sporting Gijón II

2.42

Llanera

1.91

allows per match

Sporting Gijón II

0.54

Llanera

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Llanera+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijón II ↓

Llanera →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sporting Gijón II or draw

72%

Sporting Gijón II or Llanera

76%

Draw or Llanera

52%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+

25%

Llanera wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals

81%

Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals

50%

Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals

23%

Llanera 1+ goals

71%

Llanera 2+ goals

35%

Llanera 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)

63%

Llanera (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijón II at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.54 · 85 matches

Llanera away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.92 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijón II attack 2.42 + Llanera defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.67

Llanera attack 1.91 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sporting Gijón II scores more

48%

level

24%

Llanera scores more

28%

Sporting Gijón II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

M. Mvondo

65'

Pelayo Pérez← Óscar Castro

65'

Enol Prendes← J. Mancha

72'

Cristian Acerete← Damián

72'

Marcos Fernández← E. Lozano

76'

Cristian García← J. Romaric

82'

K. Picón← Cristian Ebea

86'

Kike Meaurio← Pablo Álvarez

89'

Félix Sanz← A. Coundoul

Sporting

Llanera

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Aitor Zulaika

65'▲Pelayo Pérez←▼Óscar Castro

65'▲Enol Prendes←▼J. Mancha

72'▲Cristian Acerete←▼Damián

72'▲Marcos Fernández←▼E. Lozano

82'▲K. Picón←▼Cristian Ebea

Sporting Gijón II substitutes

PérezPrendesAcereteFernándezPicón

Manager: Chuchi Collado

76'▲Cristian García←▼J. Romaric

86'▲Kike Meaurio←▼Pablo Álvarez

89'▲Félix Sanz←▼A. Coundoul

Llanera substitutes

GarcíaMeaurioSanz

Match Recap: Sporting Gijón II vs Llanera

Llanera beat Sporting Gijón II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 12, 2023.

Goals: M. Mvondo (26').

The match was played at Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo in Gijón.

Sporting Gijón II vs Llanera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sporting Gijón II vs Llanera