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Llanera vs Sporting Gijón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Llanera
Llanera
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
Unknown 90'
4/12/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30Campo Municipal de Fútbol Pepe Quimarán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Llanera47%
×Draw26%
Sporting Gijón II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Llanera
1.52
Sporting Gijón II
1.10

Llanera creates 38% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 86 away

creates per match

Llanera
2.27
Sporting Gijón II
1.41

allows per match

Llanera
0.80
Sporting Gijón II
0.78

finishing

Llanera+0.00on par
Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Llanera ↓

Sporting Gijón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Llanera or draw
73%
Llanera or Sporting Gijón II
74%
Draw or Sporting Gijón II
53%

Winning margin

Llanera wins by 2+
24%
Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Llanera 1+ goals
78%
Llanera 2+ goals
45%
Llanera 3+ goals
20%
Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
67%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
30%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Llanera (draw refunded)
63%
Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Llanera at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.80 · 75 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Llanera attack 2.27 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.41 + Llanera defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Llanera scores more
47%
level
26%
Sporting Gijón II scores more
27%

Llanera at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Llanera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'
Llanera
Sporting
Chuchi Collado
Manager: Chuchi Collado
Samuel Baños
Manager: Samuel Baños

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Llanera 1–0 Sporting Gijón II

Llanera beat Sporting Gijón II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 12, 2026.

Goals: ? (90').

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Fútbol Pepe Quimarán in Llanera.