Sporting Gijón II 0–1 Lealtad: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijón II

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lealtad

J. Alvarez 16'

6/8/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 2nd RoundEscuela de Fútbol de Mareo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sporting Gijón II32%

×Draw30%

Lealtad38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Gijón IIExpected goals in this matchLealtad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.13

Sporting Gijón II

1.00

Lealtad

1.13

Lealtad creates 13% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

1.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Sporting Gijón II

1.00

Lealtad

1.00

allows per match

Sporting Gijón II

1.25

Lealtad

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Lealtad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijón II ↓

Lealtad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Sporting Gijón II or draw

62%

Sporting Gijón II or Lealtad

70%

Draw or Lealtad

68%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+

12%

Lealtad wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals

63%

Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals

26%

Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals

8%

Lealtad 1+ goals

68%

Lealtad 2+ goals

31%

Lealtad 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)

45%

Lealtad (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijón II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Lealtad away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.00 + Lealtad defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Lealtad attack 1.00 + Sporting Gijón II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sporting Gijón II scores more

32%

level

30%

Lealtad scores more

38%

Lealtad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lealtad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

J. Alvarez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff