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Lealtad vs Sporting Gijón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Lealtad
Lealtad
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
3/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 25Estadio Las Callejas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Lealtad38%
×Draw29%
Sporting Gijón II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lealtad
1.14
Sporting Gijón II
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 86 away

creates per match

Lealtad
1.50
Sporting Gijón II
1.41

allows per match

Lealtad
0.70
Sporting Gijón II
0.78

finishing

Lealtad+0.00on par
Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lealtad ↓

Sporting Gijón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Lealtad or draw
67%
Lealtad or Sporting Gijón II
71%
Draw or Sporting Gijón II
62%

Winning margin

Lealtad wins by 2+
16%
Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lealtad 1+ goals
68%
Lealtad 2+ goals
32%
Lealtad 3+ goals
11%
Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
65%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
28%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lealtad (draw refunded)
53%
Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lealtad at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.70 · 82 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lealtad attack 1.50 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.41 + Lealtad defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lealtad scores more
38%
level
29%
Sporting Gijón II scores more
33%

Lealtad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lealtad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lealtad vs Sporting Gijón II

Sporting Gijón II beat Lealtad 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Las Callejas in Villaviciosa.