Sporting Gijón II 2–1 Las Rozas: Result & Stats

Sporting Gijón II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Las Rozas

Garci 89'

Gaspar Campos 80'

Juanma Fernández 40'

12/1/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sporting Gijón II43%

×Draw27%

Las Rozas29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Gijón IIExpected goals in this matchLas Rozas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.06

Sporting Gijón II

1.35

Las Rozas

1.06

Sporting Gijón II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

1.63

creates per match

1.00

1.11

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Sporting Gijón II

1.63

Las Rozas

1.00

allows per match

Sporting Gijón II

1.11

Las Rozas

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Las Rozas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijón II ↓

Las Rozas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sporting Gijón II or draw

71%

Sporting Gijón II or Las Rozas

73%

Draw or Las Rozas

57%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+

20%

Las Rozas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals

74%

Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals

39%

Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals

15%

Las Rozas 1+ goals

65%

Las Rozas 2+ goals

29%

Las Rozas 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)

60%

Las Rozas (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijón II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Las Rozas away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.63 + Las Rozas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.35

Las Rozas attack 1.00 + Sporting Gijón II defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sporting Gijón II scores more

43%

level

27%

Las Rozas scores more

29%

Sporting Gijón II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

40'

51'

60'

61'

Jaime Turégano← Fran Rivera

73'

Rubén López← Gonzalo Expósito

80'

Gaspar Campos

89'

Garci

90+1'

Daniel Sandoval← César García

Sporting

Las

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Samuel Baños

51'▲Garci←▼Isma Aizpiri

60'▲Iván Elena←▼Chiki

90+1'▲Daniel Sandoval←▼César García

Sporting Gijón II substitutes

GarciElenaSandovalMilovanovEspesoFernándezJiménez

Manager: Lolo Escobar

30'▲Jaime Guadaño←▼Iñaki

61'▲Jaime Turégano←▼Fran Rivera

73'▲Rubén López←▼Gonzalo Expósito

Las Rozas substitutes

GuadañoTuréganoLópezGaloGoalAndrésZekri