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Las Rozas vs Sporting Gijón II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Las Rozas
Las Rozas
CANC
00:00
Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
4/19/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 34Estadio Navalcarbón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Las Rozas48%
×Draw28%
Sporting Gijón II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Rozas
1.31
Sporting Gijón II
0.83

Las Rozas creates 58% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 27 away

creates per match

Las Rozas
1.29
Sporting Gijón II
0.67

allows per match

Las Rozas
1.00
Sporting Gijón II
1.33

finishing

Las Rozas+0.00on par
Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Rozas ↓

Sporting Gijón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Las Rozas or draw
76%
Las Rozas or Sporting Gijón II
72%
Draw or Sporting Gijón II
52%

Winning margin

Las Rozas wins by 2+
22%
Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Las Rozas 1+ goals
73%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
38%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
14%
Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
56%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
20%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Las Rozas (draw refunded)
67%
Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Rozas at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Rozas attack 1.29 + Sporting Gijón II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sporting Gijón II attack 0.67 + Las Rozas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Las Rozas scores more
48%
level
28%
Sporting Gijón II scores more
24%

Las Rozas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Las Rozas host Sporting Gijón II

April 19, 2020: Las Rozas take on Sporting Gijón II in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Las Rozas host Sporting Gijón II at Estadio Navalcarbón.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.