Sporting Gijón II 1–0 Internacional de Madrid

Sporting Gijón II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Internacional de Madrid

Berto González 16'

9/28/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sporting Gijón II51%

×Draw26%

Internacional de Madrid23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Gijón IIExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.94

Sporting Gijón II

1.52

Internacional de Madrid

0.94

Sporting Gijón II creates 62% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 33 away

1.63

creates per match

0.76

1.11

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Sporting Gijón II

1.63

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

Sporting Gijón II

1.11

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijón II ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sporting Gijón II or draw

77%

Sporting Gijón II or Internacional de Madrid

74%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

49%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+

26%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals

78%

Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals

45%

Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals

20%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

61%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

24%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)

68%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijón II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.63 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Sporting Gijón II defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sporting Gijón II scores more

51%

level

26%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

23%

Sporting Gijón II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Berto González

23'

João Pedro← Junior

59'

S. Bellini← Chiki

68'

Pelayo Morilla← César García

68'

M. Boselli← N. Arkine

75'

Diego Simón← Alvar Herrero

83'

Javi Cobo← Javi Mecerreyes

Sporting

Internacional

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Samuel Baños

59'▲S. Bellini←▼Chiki

68'▲Pelayo Morilla←▼César García

83'▲Javi Cobo←▼Javi Mecerreyes

Sporting Gijón II substitutes

BelliniMorillaCoboSandovalJiménezGarcíaFernández

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

23'▲João Pedro←▼Junior

68'▲M. Boselli←▼N. Arkine

75'▲Diego Simón←▼Alvar Herrero

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

PedroBoselliSimónNúñezPozoMarcãoValero