Internacional de Madrid 1–1 Sporting Gijón II

Internacional de Madrid

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sporting Gijón II

Alvar Herrero 1'

Gaspar Campos 32'

2/16/2020

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Boadilla del Monte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Internacional de Madrid52%

×Draw25%

Sporting Gijón II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijón II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.96

Internacional de Madrid

1.58

Sporting Gijón II

0.96

Internacional de Madrid creates 65% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 27 away

1.82

creates per match

0.67

1.24

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

Sporting Gijón II

0.67

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

Sporting Gijón II

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Sporting Gijón II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

77%

Internacional de Madrid or Sporting Gijón II

75%

Draw or Sporting Gijón II

48%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

27%

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

79%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

47%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

21%

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals

62%

Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals

25%

Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

69%

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Sporting Gijón II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sporting Gijón II attack 0.67 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

52%

level

25%

Sporting Gijón II scores more

23%

Internacional de Madrid at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

Alvar Herrero

32'

Gaspar Campos

83'

Diego Simón← Adrián Mance

85'

Iván Elena← Javi Cobo

85'

Toquero← Chiki

Internacional

Sporting

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: Marcos Jiménez

83'▲Diego Simón←▼Adrián Mance

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

SimónGuzmánSánchezGallardoBoselliGonzález

Manager: Samuel Baños

85'▲Iván Elena←▼Javi Cobo

85'▲Toquero←▼Chiki

Sporting Gijón II substitutes

ElenaToqueroEspesoSandovalJiménezTrabancoVillaldea