Sporting Gijón II 1–1 Celta de Vigo II

Sporting Gijón II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Celta de Vigo II

Berto González 28'

Sergio Bermejo 22'

11/16/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sporting Gijón II43%

×Draw26%

Celta de Vigo II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Gijón IIExpected goals in this matchCelta de Vigo II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.22

Sporting Gijón II

1.46

Celta de Vigo II

1.22

Sporting Gijón II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 120 away

1.63

creates per match

1.33

1.11

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Sporting Gijón II

1.63

Celta de Vigo II

1.33

allows per match

Sporting Gijón II

1.11

Celta de Vigo II

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijón II ↓

Celta de Vigo II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sporting Gijón II or draw

68%

Sporting Gijón II or Celta de Vigo II

74%

Draw or Celta de Vigo II

57%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+

21%

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals

77%

Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals

43%

Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals

18%

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals

70%

Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals

34%

Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)

57%

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijón II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Celta de Vigo II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.29 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.63 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.46

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.33 + Sporting Gijón II defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sporting Gijón II scores more

43%

level

26%

Celta de Vigo II scores more

32%

Sporting Gijón II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Sergio Bermejo

28'

Berto González

57'

Gaspar Campos← Garci

66'

Gabri Veiga← Moha

69'

S. Bellini← Iván Elena

72'

Jacobo González← Sergio Bermejo

85'

Javi Mecerreyes← José Gragera

85'

L. De León← E. Apeh

Sporting

Celta

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Samuel Baños

57'▲Gaspar Campos←▼Garci

69'▲S. Bellini←▼Iván Elena

85'▲Javi Mecerreyes←▼José Gragera

Sporting Gijón II substitutes

CamposBelliniMecerreyesChikiCoboJiménezGarcía

Manager: Jacobo Montes

66'▲Gabri Veiga←▼Moha

72'▲Jacobo González←▼Sergio Bermejo

85'▲L. De León←▼E. Apeh

Celta de Vigo II substitutes

VeigaGonzálezLeónVegaDomínguezManganaCissé