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Celta de Vigo II vs Sporting Gijón II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Celta de Vigo II
Celta de Vigo II
CANC
00:00
Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
4/5/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Celta de Vigo II51%
×Draw26%
Sporting Gijón II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celta de Vigo II
1.50
Sporting Gijón II
0.90

Celta de Vigo II creates 67% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 27 away

creates per match

Celta de Vigo II
1.68
Sporting Gijón II
0.67

allows per match

Celta de Vigo II
1.12
Sporting Gijón II
1.33

finishing

Celta de Vigo II+0.00on par
Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celta de Vigo II ↓

Sporting Gijón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Celta de Vigo II or draw
77%
Celta de Vigo II or Sporting Gijón II
74%
Draw or Sporting Gijón II
49%

Winning margin

Celta de Vigo II wins by 2+
26%
Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Celta de Vigo II 1+ goals
78%
Celta de Vigo II 2+ goals
44%
Celta de Vigo II 3+ goals
19%
Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
59%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
23%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Celta de Vigo II (draw refunded)
69%
Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celta de Vigo II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.12 · 121 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celta de Vigo II attack 1.68 + Sporting Gijón II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sporting Gijón II attack 0.67 + Celta de Vigo II defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Celta de Vigo II scores more
51%
level
26%
Sporting Gijón II scores more
23%

Celta de Vigo II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Celta de Vigo II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Celta de Vigo II host Sporting Gijón II

April 5, 2020: Celta de Vigo II take on Sporting Gijón II in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Celta de Vigo II host Sporting Gijón II at Campo de Fútbol Municipal de Barreiro.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.