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Sporting Gijón II vs Barcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Barcia
Barcia
1/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 16Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sporting Gijón II75%
×Draw17%
Barcia8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Gijón II
2.27
Barcia
0.59

Sporting Gijón II creates 285% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sporting Gijón II
2.42
Barcia
0.65

allows per match

Sporting Gijón II
0.54
Barcia
2.12

finishing

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par
Barcia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijón II ↓

Barcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sporting Gijón II or draw
92%
Sporting Gijón II or Barcia
83%
Draw or Barcia
25%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
51%
Barcia wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
90%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
66%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
39%
Barcia 1+ goals
45%
Barcia 2+ goals
12%
Barcia 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
90%
Barcia (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijón II at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.54 · 85 matches

Barcia away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijón II attack 2.42 + Barcia defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.27

Barcia attack 0.65 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Sporting Gijón II scores more
75%
level
17%
Barcia scores more
8%

Sporting Gijón II at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Gijón II vs Barcia

Sporting Gijón II beat Barcia 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo in Gijón.