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Barcia vs Sporting Gijón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Barcia
Barcia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
5/4/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Campo de fútbol San Sebastián

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Barcia14%
×Draw20%
Sporting Gijón II65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcia
0.83
Sporting Gijón II
2.03

Sporting Gijón II creates 145% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 86 away

creates per match

Barcia
0.88
Sporting Gijón II
1.41

allows per match

Barcia
2.65
Sporting Gijón II
0.78

finishing

Barcia+0.00on par
Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcia ↓

Sporting Gijón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Barcia or draw
35%
Barcia or Sporting Gijón II
80%
Draw or Sporting Gijón II
86%

Winning margin

Barcia wins by 2+
4%
Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Barcia 1+ goals
56%
Barcia 2+ goals
20%
Barcia 3+ goals
5%
Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
87%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
60%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Barcia (draw refunded)
18%
Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcia attack 0.88 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.41 + Barcia defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Barcia scores more
14%
level
20%
Sporting Gijón II scores more
65%

Sporting Gijón II at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barcia 1 – 0 Sporting Gijón II

Barcia beat Sporting Gijón II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol San Sebastián in Barcia.