Sporting Gijón II 4–0 Avilés Stadium

Sporting Gijón II

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Avilés Stadium

11/10/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Sporting Gijón II69%

×Draw19%

Avilés Stadium11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting Gijón IIExpected goals in this matchAvilés Stadium

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.70

Sporting Gijón II

2.08

Avilés Stadium

0.70

Sporting Gijón II creates 197% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 80 away

2.42

creates per match

0.85

0.54

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Sporting Gijón II

2.42

Avilés Stadium

0.85

allows per match

Sporting Gijón II

0.54

Avilés Stadium

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Avilés Stadium+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Gijón II ↓

Avilés Stadium →

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sporting Gijón II or draw

89%

Sporting Gijón II or Avilés Stadium

81%

Draw or Avilés Stadium

31%

Winning margin

Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+

44%

Avilés Stadium wins by 2+

Team goals

Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals

87%

Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals

61%

Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals

34%

Avilés Stadium 1+ goals

50%

Avilés Stadium 2+ goals

16%

Avilés Stadium 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)

86%

Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Sporting Gijón II at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.54 · 85 matches

Avilés Stadium away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.75 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Gijón II attack 2.42 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.08

Avilés Stadium attack 0.85 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Sporting Gijón II scores more

69%

level

19%

Avilés Stadium scores more

11%

Sporting Gijón II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Gijón II vs Avilés Stadium

Sporting Gijón II beat Avilés Stadium 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Escuela de Fútbol de Mareo in Gijón.

Sporting Gijón II vs Avilés Stadium — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sporting Gijón II vs Avilés Stadium