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Avilés Stadium vs Sporting Gijón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Avilés Stadium
Avilés Stadium
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
12/14/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Campo Muro de Zaro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Avilés Stadium22%
×Draw29%
Sporting Gijón II49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avilés Stadium
0.76
Sporting Gijón II
1.30

Sporting Gijón II creates 71% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 86 away

creates per match

Avilés Stadium
0.74
Sporting Gijón II
1.41

allows per match

Avilés Stadium
1.20
Sporting Gijón II
0.78

finishing

Avilés Stadium+0.00on par
Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avilés Stadium ↓

Sporting Gijón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Avilés Stadium or draw
51%
Avilés Stadium or Sporting Gijón II
71%
Draw or Sporting Gijón II
78%

Winning margin

Avilés Stadium wins by 2+
6%
Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Avilés Stadium 1+ goals
53%
Avilés Stadium 2+ goals
18%
Avilés Stadium 3+ goals
4%
Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
73%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
37%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Avilés Stadium (draw refunded)
31%
Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avilés Stadium at home — creates 0.74, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avilés Stadium attack 0.74 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.76

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.41 + Avilés Stadium defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Avilés Stadium scores more
22%
level
29%
Sporting Gijón II scores more
49%

Sporting Gijón II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Avilés Stadium 0–1 Sporting Gijón II

Sporting Gijón II beat Avilés Stadium 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 14, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Muro de Zaro in Avilés.