Sporting de Cabinda 1–0 Sporting de Benguela

Sporting de Cabinda

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting de Benguela

3/5/2023

Girabola · Round 21Estádio Municipal do Tafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Sporting de Cabinda64%

×Draw22%

Sporting de Benguela15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting de CabindaExpected goals in this matchSporting de Benguela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

0.77

Sporting de Cabinda

1.89

Sporting de Benguela

0.77

Sporting de Cabinda creates 145% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 29 away

1.05

creates per match

0.38

1.17

allows per match

2.72

creates per match

Sporting de Cabinda

1.05

Sporting de Benguela

0.38

allows per match

Sporting de Cabinda

1.17

Sporting de Benguela

2.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par

Sporting de Benguela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Cabinda ↓

Sporting de Benguela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sporting de Cabinda or draw

85%

Sporting de Cabinda or Sporting de Benguela

78%

Draw or Sporting de Benguela

36%

Winning margin

Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+

38%

Sporting de Benguela wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals

85%

Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals

56%

Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals

29%

Sporting de Benguela 1+ goals

54%

Sporting de Benguela 2+ goals

18%

Sporting de Benguela 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)

81%

Sporting de Benguela (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Cabinda at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

Sporting de Benguela away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.72 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Cabinda attack 1.05 + Sporting de Benguela defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 1.89

Sporting de Benguela attack 0.38 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sporting de Cabinda scores more

64%

level

22%

Sporting de Benguela scores more

15%

Sporting de Cabinda at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sporting de Cabinda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff