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Sporting de Benguela vs Sporting de Cabinda — Girabola 2019

Sporting de Benguela
Sporting de Benguela
FT
0 – 1
Sporting de Cabinda
Sporting de Cabinda
10/30/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 6Estádio Municipal Edelfride Palhares da Costa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sporting de Benguela40%
×Draw26%
Sporting de Cabinda34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting de Benguela
1.38
Sporting de Cabinda
1.25

Sporting de Benguela creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 66 away

creates per match

Sporting de Benguela
0.83
Sporting de Cabinda
0.53

allows per match

Sporting de Benguela
1.97
Sporting de Cabinda
1.92

finishing

Sporting de Benguela+0.00on par
Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Benguela ↓

Sporting de Cabinda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sporting de Benguela or draw
66%
Sporting de Benguela or Sporting de Cabinda
74%
Draw or Sporting de Cabinda
60%

Winning margin

Sporting de Benguela wins by 2+
19%
Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sporting de Benguela 1+ goals
75%
Sporting de Benguela 2+ goals
40%
Sporting de Benguela 3+ goals
16%
Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals
71%
Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals
36%
Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Benguela (draw refunded)
54%
Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Benguela at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Sporting de Cabinda away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.92 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Benguela attack 0.83 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sporting de Cabinda attack 0.53 + Sporting de Benguela defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sporting de Benguela scores more
40%
level
26%
Sporting de Cabinda scores more
34%

Sporting de Benguela at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sporting de Benguela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sporting de Benguela 0 – 1 Sporting de Cabinda

Sporting de Cabinda beat Sporting de Benguela 1-0 in Girabola on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Edelfride Palhares da Costa in Benguela.