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Sporting de Cabinda vs Recreativo do Libolo — Girabola 2025

Sporting de Cabinda
Sporting de Cabinda
FT
1 – 1
Recreativo do Libolo
Recreativo do Libolo
2/19/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 19Estádio Municipal do Tafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Sporting de Cabinda27%
×Draw30%
Recreativo do Libolo43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting de Cabinda
0.88
Recreativo do Libolo
1.20

Recreativo do Libolo creates 36% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 22 away

creates per match

Sporting de Cabinda
0.40
Recreativo do Libolo
0.59

allows per match

Sporting de Cabinda
1.80
Recreativo do Libolo
1.36

finishing

Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par
Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Cabinda ↓

Recreativo do Libolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sporting de Cabinda or draw
57%
Sporting de Cabinda or Recreativo do Libolo
70%
Draw or Recreativo do Libolo
73%

Winning margin

Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+
9%
Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals
59%
Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals
22%
Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals
6%
Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals
70%
Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals
34%
Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)
38%
Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Cabinda at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Recreativo do Libolo away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Cabinda attack 0.40 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.88

Recreativo do Libolo attack 0.59 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sporting de Cabinda scores more
27%
level
30%
Recreativo do Libolo scores more
43%

Recreativo do Libolo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Recreativo do Libolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Sporting de Cabinda 1–1 Recreativo do Libolo

Sporting de Cabinda and Recreativo do Libolo drew 1-1 in Girabola on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal do Tafe in Cabinda.