Recreativo do Libolo 4–2 Sporting de Cabinda

Recreativo do Libolo

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Sporting de Cabinda

5/18/2024

Girabola · Round 27Estádio Municipal de Calulo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Recreativo do Libolo70%

×Draw18%

Sporting de Cabinda12%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recreativo do LiboloExpected goals in this matchSporting de Cabinda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.84

Recreativo do Libolo

2.29

Sporting de Cabinda

0.84

Recreativo do Libolo creates 173% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 7 away

1.45

creates per match

0.86

0.83

allows per match

3.14

creates per match

Recreativo do Libolo

1.45

Sporting de Cabinda

0.86

allows per match

Recreativo do Libolo

0.83

Sporting de Cabinda

3.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo do Libolo ↓

Sporting de Cabinda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Recreativo do Libolo or draw

88%

Recreativo do Libolo or Sporting de Cabinda

82%

Draw or Sporting de Cabinda

30%

Winning margin

Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+

46%

Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals

90%

Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals

66%

Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals

40%

Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals

57%

Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals

21%

Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)

85%

Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo do Libolo at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.83 · 29 matches

Sporting de Cabinda away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo do Libolo attack 1.45 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.29

Sporting de Cabinda attack 0.86 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Recreativo do Libolo scores more

70%

level

18%

Sporting de Cabinda scores more

12%

Recreativo do Libolo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Recreativo do Libolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff