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Sporting de Cabinda vs Progresso — Girabola 2019

Sporting de Cabinda
Sporting de Cabinda
FT
3 – 0
Progresso
Progresso
6/19/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 25Estádio Municipal do Tafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sporting de Cabinda48%
×Draw27%
Progresso25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting de Cabinda
1.40
Progresso
0.92

Sporting de Cabinda creates 52% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 56 away

creates per match

Sporting de Cabinda
1.07
Progresso
0.66

allows per match

Sporting de Cabinda
1.18
Progresso
1.73

finishing

Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par
Progresso+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Cabinda ↓

Progresso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sporting de Cabinda or draw
75%
Sporting de Cabinda or Progresso
73%
Draw or Progresso
52%

Winning margin

Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+
23%
Progresso wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals
75%
Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals
41%
Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals
17%
Progresso 1+ goals
60%
Progresso 2+ goals
23%
Progresso 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)
66%
Progresso (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Cabinda at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.18 · 67 matches

Progresso away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.73 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Cabinda attack 1.07 + Progresso defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.40

Progresso attack 0.66 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sporting de Cabinda scores more
48%
level
27%
Progresso scores more
25%

Sporting de Cabinda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sporting de Cabinda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting de Cabinda vs Progresso

Sporting de Cabinda beat Progresso 3-0 in Girabola on June 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal do Tafe in Cabinda.