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Progresso vs Sporting de Cabinda — Girabola 2019

Progresso
Progresso
FT
0 – 1
Sporting de Cabinda
Sporting de Cabinda
10/30/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 5Estádio Joaquim Dinis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Progresso54%
×Draw26%
Sporting de Cabinda20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progresso
1.51
Sporting de Cabinda
0.81

Progresso creates 86% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 68 away

creates per match

Progresso
1.08
Sporting de Cabinda
0.51

allows per match

Progresso
1.10
Sporting de Cabinda
1.94

finishing

Progresso+0.00on par
Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progresso ↓

Sporting de Cabinda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Progresso or draw
80%
Progresso or Sporting de Cabinda
74%
Draw or Sporting de Cabinda
46%

Winning margin

Progresso wins by 2+
28%
Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Progresso 1+ goals
78%
Progresso 2+ goals
44%
Progresso 3+ goals
19%
Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals
56%
Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals
19%
Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Progresso (draw refunded)
73%
Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progresso at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.10 · 52 matches

Sporting de Cabinda away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.94 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progresso attack 1.08 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.51

Sporting de Cabinda attack 0.51 + Progresso defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Progresso scores more
54%
level
26%
Sporting de Cabinda scores more
20%

Progresso at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Progresso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progresso vs Sporting de Cabinda

Sporting de Cabinda beat Progresso 1-0 in Girabola on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Joaquim Dinis in Luanda.