Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sporting de Cabinda vs Kabuscorp — Girabola 2021

Sporting de Cabinda
Sporting de Cabinda
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kabuscorp
Kabuscorp
2/26/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 16Estádio Municipal do Tafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Sporting de Cabinda32%
×Draw31%
Kabuscorp38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting de Cabinda
0.96
Kabuscorp
1.07

Kabuscorp creates 11% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 64 away

creates per match

Sporting de Cabinda
0.83
Kabuscorp
0.86

allows per match

Sporting de Cabinda
1.29
Kabuscorp
1.09

finishing

Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par
Kabuscorp+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Cabinda ↓

Kabuscorp →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sporting de Cabinda or draw
62%
Sporting de Cabinda or Kabuscorp
69%
Draw or Kabuscorp
68%

Winning margin

Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+
12%
Kabuscorp wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals
62%
Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals
25%
Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals
7%
Kabuscorp 1+ goals
66%
Kabuscorp 2+ goals
29%
Kabuscorp 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)
46%
Kabuscorp (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Cabinda at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.29 · 41 matches

Kabuscorp away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.09 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Cabinda attack 0.83 + Kabuscorp defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.96

Kabuscorp attack 0.86 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sporting de Cabinda scores more
32%
level
31%
Kabuscorp scores more
38%

Kabuscorp at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kabuscorp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Sporting de Cabinda 1–0 Kabuscorp

Sporting de Cabinda beat Kabuscorp 1-0 in Girabola on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal do Tafe in Cabinda.