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Kabuscorp vs Sporting de Cabinda — Girabola 2021

Kabuscorp
Kabuscorp
CANC
13:00
Sporting de Cabinda
Sporting de Cabinda
9/15/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Kabuscorp61%
×Draw24%
Sporting de Cabinda15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kabuscorp
1.70
Sporting de Cabinda
0.71

Kabuscorp creates 139% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 41 away

creates per match

Kabuscorp
1.27
Sporting de Cabinda
0.59

allows per match

Kabuscorp
0.83
Sporting de Cabinda
2.12

finishing

Kabuscorp+0.00on par
Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabuscorp ↓

Sporting de Cabinda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kabuscorp or draw
85%
Kabuscorp or Sporting de Cabinda
76%
Draw or Sporting de Cabinda
39%

Winning margin

Kabuscorp wins by 2+
35%
Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kabuscorp 1+ goals
82%
Kabuscorp 2+ goals
51%
Kabuscorp 3+ goals
24%
Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals
51%
Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals
16%
Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kabuscorp (draw refunded)
80%
Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabuscorp at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.83 · 66 matches

Sporting de Cabinda away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.12 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabuscorp attack 1.27 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.70

Sporting de Cabinda attack 0.59 + Kabuscorp defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kabuscorp scores more
61%
level
24%
Sporting de Cabinda scores more
15%

Kabuscorp at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kabuscorp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kabuscorp face Sporting de Cabinda (Girabola)

Girabola returns with Kabuscorp hosting Sporting de Cabinda. Match starts September 15, 2023. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.