Sporting de Cabinda 0–0 Dragão: Result & Stats

Sporting de Cabinda

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dragão

10/2/2022

Girabola · Round 2Estádio Municipal do Tafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sporting de Cabinda64%

×Draw21%

Dragão15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting de CabindaExpected goals in this matchDragão

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

0.80

Sporting de Cabinda

1.92

Dragão

0.80

Sporting de Cabinda creates 140% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 14 away

1.05

creates per match

0.43

1.17

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Sporting de Cabinda

1.05

Dragão

0.43

allows per match

Sporting de Cabinda

1.17

Dragão

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par

Dragão+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Cabinda ↓

Dragão →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sporting de Cabinda or draw

85%

Sporting de Cabinda or Dragão

79%

Draw or Dragão

36%

Winning margin

Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+

38%

Dragão wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals

85%

Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals

57%

Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals

30%

Dragão 1+ goals

55%

Dragão 2+ goals

19%

Dragão 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)

81%

Dragão (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Cabinda at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

Dragão away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Cabinda attack 1.05 + Dragão defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 1.92

Dragão attack 0.43 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sporting de Cabinda scores more

64%

level

21%

Dragão scores more

15%

Sporting de Cabinda at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sporting de Cabinda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff