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Dragão vs Sporting de Cabinda — Girabola 2019

Dragão
Dragão
FT
2 – 0
Sporting de Cabinda
Sporting de Cabinda
5/3/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 17Estádio 4 de Janeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dragão48%
×Draw31%
Sporting de Cabinda21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dragão
1.18
Sporting de Cabinda
0.66

Dragão creates 79% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 66 away

creates per match

Dragão
0.43
Sporting de Cabinda
0.53

allows per match

Dragão
0.79
Sporting de Cabinda
1.92

finishing

Dragão+0.00on par
Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dragão ↓

Sporting de Cabinda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Dragão or draw
79%
Dragão or Sporting de Cabinda
69%
Draw or Sporting de Cabinda
52%

Winning margin

Dragão wins by 2+
21%
Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dragão 1+ goals
69%
Dragão 2+ goals
33%
Dragão 3+ goals
12%
Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals
48%
Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals
14%
Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Dragão (draw refunded)
70%
Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dragão at home — creates 0.43, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Sporting de Cabinda away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.92 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dragão attack 0.43 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.18

Sporting de Cabinda attack 0.53 + Dragão defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dragão scores more
48%
level
31%
Sporting de Cabinda scores more
21%

Dragão at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dragão will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Dragão 2–0 Sporting de Cabinda

Dragão beat Sporting de Cabinda 2-0 in Girabola on May 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio 4 de Janeiro in Uíge.