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Sporting de Cabinda vs Cuando Cubango — Girabola 2019

Sporting de Cabinda
Sporting de Cabinda
FT
0 – 0
Cuando Cubango
Cuando Cubango
4/24/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 27Estádio Municipal do Tafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Sporting de Cabinda43%
×Draw28%
Cuando Cubango29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting de Cabinda
1.27
Cuando Cubango
0.98

Sporting de Cabinda creates 30% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 50 away

creates per match

Sporting de Cabinda
1.05
Cuando Cubango
0.80

allows per match

Sporting de Cabinda
1.17
Cuando Cubango
1.50

finishing

Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par
Cuando Cubango+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Cabinda ↓

Cuando Cubango →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sporting de Cabinda or draw
71%
Sporting de Cabinda or Cuando Cubango
72%
Draw or Cuando Cubango
57%

Winning margin

Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+
19%
Cuando Cubango wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals
72%
Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals
36%
Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals
14%
Cuando Cubango 1+ goals
62%
Cuando Cubango 2+ goals
26%
Cuando Cubango 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)
60%
Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Cabinda at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.17 · 64 matches

Cuando Cubango away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Cabinda attack 1.05 + Cuando Cubango defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cuando Cubango attack 0.80 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sporting de Cabinda scores more
43%
level
28%
Cuando Cubango scores more
29%

Sporting de Cabinda at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sporting de Cabinda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting de Cabinda vs Cuando Cubango

Sporting de Cabinda and Cuando Cubango drew 0-0 in Girabola on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal do Tafe in Cabinda.