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Cuando Cubango vs Sporting de Cabinda — Girabola 2019

Cuando Cubango
Cuando Cubango
FT
0 – 1
Sporting de Cabinda
Sporting de Cabinda
12/15/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 12Estádio Municipal dos Eucaliptos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cuando Cubango54%
×Draw28%
Sporting de Cabinda18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cuando Cubango
1.37
Sporting de Cabinda
0.65

Cuando Cubango creates 111% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 66 away

creates per match

Cuando Cubango
0.82
Sporting de Cabinda
0.53

allows per match

Cuando Cubango
0.76
Sporting de Cabinda
1.92

finishing

Cuando Cubango+0.00on par
Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuando Cubango ↓

Sporting de Cabinda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Cuando Cubango or draw
82%
Cuando Cubango or Sporting de Cabinda
72%
Draw or Sporting de Cabinda
46%

Winning margin

Cuando Cubango wins by 2+
27%
Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Cuando Cubango 1+ goals
75%
Cuando Cubango 2+ goals
40%
Cuando Cubango 3+ goals
16%
Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals
48%
Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals
14%
Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)
75%
Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuando Cubango at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.76 · 51 matches

Sporting de Cabinda away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.92 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuando Cubango attack 0.82 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.37

Sporting de Cabinda attack 0.53 + Cuando Cubango defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cuando Cubango scores more
54%
level
28%
Sporting de Cabinda scores more
18%

Cuando Cubango at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cuando Cubango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Cuando Cubango 0–1 Sporting de Cabinda

Sporting de Cabinda beat Cuando Cubango 1-0 in Girabola on December 15, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Eucaliptos in Kuito.