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Sporting de Cabinda vs Bravos do Maquis FC — Girabola 2019

Sporting de Cabinda
Sporting de Cabinda
FT
1 – 0
Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
2/5/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 18Estádio Municipal do Tafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Sporting de Cabinda35%
×Draw30%
Bravos do Maquis FC35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting de Cabinda
1.07
Bravos do Maquis FC
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 106 away

creates per match

Sporting de Cabinda
1.05
Bravos do Maquis FC
0.95

allows per match

Sporting de Cabinda
1.18
Bravos do Maquis FC
1.09

finishing

Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par
Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Cabinda ↓

Bravos do Maquis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sporting de Cabinda or draw
65%
Sporting de Cabinda or Bravos do Maquis FC
70%
Draw or Bravos do Maquis FC
65%

Winning margin

Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+
14%
Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals
66%
Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals
29%
Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals
9%
Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
65%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
29%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)
50%
Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Cabinda at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.18 · 65 matches

Bravos do Maquis FC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Cabinda attack 1.05 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.07

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 0.95 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Sporting de Cabinda scores more
35%
level
30%
Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
35%

Sporting de Cabinda at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Sporting de Cabinda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Sporting de Cabinda 1–0 Bravos do Maquis FC

Sporting de Cabinda beat Bravos do Maquis FC 1-0 in Girabola on February 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal do Tafe in Cabinda.