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Bravos do Maquis FC vs Sporting de Cabinda — Girabola 2019

Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
CANC
00:00
Sporting de Cabinda
Sporting de Cabinda
3/16/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 4Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Bravos do Maquis FC61%
×Draw25%
Sporting de Cabinda15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.61
Sporting de Cabinda
0.64

Bravos do Maquis FC creates 152% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 66 away

creates per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.30
Sporting de Cabinda
0.53

allows per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
0.75
Sporting de Cabinda
1.92

finishing

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par
Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravos do Maquis FC ↓

Sporting de Cabinda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bravos do Maquis FC or draw
85%
Bravos do Maquis FC or Sporting de Cabinda
75%
Draw or Sporting de Cabinda
39%

Winning margin

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
33%
Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
80%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
48%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
22%
Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals
47%
Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals
14%
Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
81%
Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravos do Maquis FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.75 · 105 matches

Sporting de Cabinda away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.92 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 1.30 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.61

Sporting de Cabinda attack 0.53 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
61%
level
25%
Sporting de Cabinda scores more
15%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bravos do Maquis FC vs Sporting de Cabinda — Match Preview

Bravos do Maquis FC face Sporting de Cabinda on March 16, 2024 in this Girabola fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bravos do Maquis FC host Sporting de Cabinda at Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.