Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sporting de Cabinda vs Académica do Lobito — Girabola 2019

Sporting de Cabinda
Sporting de Cabinda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Académica do Lobito
Académica do Lobito
3/20/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 14Estádio Municipal do Tafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Sporting de Cabinda42%
×Draw29%
Académica do Lobito28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting de Cabinda
1.20
Académica do Lobito
0.93

Sporting de Cabinda creates 29% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 100 away

creates per match

Sporting de Cabinda
1.07
Académica do Lobito
0.68

allows per match

Sporting de Cabinda
1.18
Académica do Lobito
1.32

finishing

Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par
Académica do Lobito+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Cabinda ↓

Académica do Lobito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sporting de Cabinda or draw
72%
Sporting de Cabinda or Académica do Lobito
71%
Draw or Académica do Lobito
58%

Winning margin

Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+
18%
Académica do Lobito wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals
70%
Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals
34%
Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals
12%
Académica do Lobito 1+ goals
61%
Académica do Lobito 2+ goals
24%
Académica do Lobito 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)
60%
Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Cabinda at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.18 · 67 matches

Académica do Lobito away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.32 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Cabinda attack 1.07 + Académica do Lobito defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.20

Académica do Lobito attack 0.68 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sporting de Cabinda scores more
42%
level
29%
Académica do Lobito scores more
28%

Sporting de Cabinda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sporting de Cabinda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting de Cabinda vs Académica do Lobito

Sporting de Cabinda and Académica do Lobito drew 1-1 in Girabola on March 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal do Tafe in Cabinda.