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Académica do Lobito vs Sporting de Cabinda — Girabola 2019

Académica do Lobito
Académica do Lobito
CANC
14:00
Sporting de Cabinda
Sporting de Cabinda
2/10/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 29Estádio do Buraco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Académica do Lobito59%
×Draw26%
Sporting de Cabinda15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Académica do Lobito
1.53
Sporting de Cabinda
0.64

Académica do Lobito creates 139% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 68 away

creates per match

Académica do Lobito
1.13
Sporting de Cabinda
0.51

allows per match

Académica do Lobito
0.76
Sporting de Cabinda
1.94

finishing

Académica do Lobito+0.00on par
Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Académica do Lobito ↓

Sporting de Cabinda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Académica do Lobito or draw
85%
Académica do Lobito or Sporting de Cabinda
74%
Draw or Sporting de Cabinda
41%

Winning margin

Académica do Lobito wins by 2+
31%
Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Académica do Lobito 1+ goals
78%
Académica do Lobito 2+ goals
45%
Académica do Lobito 3+ goals
20%
Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals
47%
Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals
14%
Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)
79%
Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Académica do Lobito at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.76 · 98 matches

Sporting de Cabinda away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.94 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Académica do Lobito attack 1.13 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.53

Sporting de Cabinda attack 0.51 + Académica do Lobito defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Académica do Lobito scores more
59%
level
26%
Sporting de Cabinda scores more
15%

Académica do Lobito at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Académica do Lobito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Académica do Lobito face Sporting de Cabinda (Girabola)

Girabola returns with Académica do Lobito hosting Sporting de Cabinda. Match starts February 10, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Académica do Lobito host Sporting de Cabinda at Estádio do Buraco.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.