Sporting de Benguela 0–3 Petro de Luanda

Sporting de Benguela

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Petro de Luanda

12/20/2021

Girabola · Round 13Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sporting de Benguela13%

×Draw21%

Petro de Luanda65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting de BenguelaExpected goals in this matchPetro de Luanda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.71

1.89

Sporting de Benguela

0.71

Petro de Luanda

1.89

Petro de Luanda creates 166% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 104 away

0.83

creates per match

1.81

1.97

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Sporting de Benguela

0.83

Petro de Luanda

1.81

allows per match

Sporting de Benguela

1.97

Petro de Luanda

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting de Benguela+0.00on par

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Benguela ↓

Petro de Luanda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–114%

0–213%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sporting de Benguela or draw

35%

Sporting de Benguela or Petro de Luanda

79%

Draw or Petro de Luanda

87%

Winning margin

Sporting de Benguela wins by 2+

4%

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Sporting de Benguela 1+ goals

51%

Sporting de Benguela 2+ goals

16%

Sporting de Benguela 3+ goals

4%

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals

85%

Petro de Luanda 2+ goals

56%

Petro de Luanda 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Benguela (draw refunded)

17%

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Benguela at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.59 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Benguela attack 0.83 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.71

Petro de Luanda attack 1.81 + Sporting de Benguela defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Sporting de Benguela scores more

13%

level

21%

Petro de Luanda scores more

65%

Petro de Luanda at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff