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Petro de Luanda vs Sporting de Benguela — Girabola 2019

Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Sporting de Benguela
Sporting de Benguela
5/20/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 28Estádio 11 de Novembro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Petro de Luanda81%
×Draw14%
Sporting de Benguela5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petro de Luanda
2.37
Sporting de Benguela
0.41

Petro de Luanda creates 478% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 29 away

creates per match

Petro de Luanda
2.01
Sporting de Benguela
0.38

allows per match

Petro de Luanda
0.43
Sporting de Benguela
2.72

finishing

Petro de Luanda+0.00on par
Sporting de Benguela+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petro de Luanda ↓

Sporting de Benguela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (18%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Petro de Luanda or draw
95%
Petro de Luanda or Sporting de Benguela
86%
Draw or Sporting de Benguela
19%

Winning margin

Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
58%
Sporting de Benguela wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
91%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
68%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
42%
Sporting de Benguela 1+ goals
34%
Sporting de Benguela 2+ goals
6%
Sporting de Benguela 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
94%
Sporting de Benguela (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petro de Luanda at home — creates 2.01, concedes 0.43 · 110 matches

Sporting de Benguela away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.72 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petro de Luanda attack 2.01 + Sporting de Benguela defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 2.37

Sporting de Benguela attack 0.38 + Petro de Luanda defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Petro de Luanda scores more
81%
level
14%
Sporting de Benguela scores more
5%

Petro de Luanda at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Petro de Luanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Petro de Luanda 4–0 Sporting de Benguela

Petro de Luanda beat Sporting de Benguela 4-0 in Girabola on May 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio 11 de Novembro in Luanda.