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Sporting de Benguela vs Kabuscorp — Girabola 2019

Sporting de Benguela
Sporting de Benguela
FT
1 – 2
Kabuscorp
Kabuscorp
10/24/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 4Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sporting de Benguela25%
×Draw27%
Kabuscorp48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting de Benguela
0.96
Kabuscorp
1.42

Kabuscorp creates 48% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 65 away

creates per match

Sporting de Benguela
0.83
Kabuscorp
0.86

allows per match

Sporting de Benguela
1.97
Kabuscorp
1.09

finishing

Sporting de Benguela+0.00on par
Kabuscorp+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Benguela ↓

Kabuscorp →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sporting de Benguela or draw
52%
Sporting de Benguela or Kabuscorp
73%
Draw or Kabuscorp
75%

Winning margin

Sporting de Benguela wins by 2+
9%
Kabuscorp wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sporting de Benguela 1+ goals
62%
Sporting de Benguela 2+ goals
25%
Sporting de Benguela 3+ goals
7%
Kabuscorp 1+ goals
76%
Kabuscorp 2+ goals
41%
Kabuscorp 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Benguela (draw refunded)
35%
Kabuscorp (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Benguela at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Kabuscorp away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Benguela attack 0.83 + Kabuscorp defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.96

Kabuscorp attack 0.86 + Sporting de Benguela defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sporting de Benguela scores more
25%
level
27%
Kabuscorp scores more
48%

Kabuscorp at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kabuscorp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting de Benguela vs Kabuscorp

Kabuscorp beat Sporting de Benguela 2-1 in Girabola on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA in Benguela.