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Kabuscorp vs Sporting de Benguela — Girabola 2019

Kabuscorp
Kabuscorp
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sporting de Benguela
Sporting de Benguela
3/23/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 19Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Kabuscorp71%
×Draw19%
Sporting de Benguela10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kabuscorp
2.03
Sporting de Benguela
0.61

Kabuscorp creates 233% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 29 away

creates per match

Kabuscorp
1.33
Sporting de Benguela
0.38

allows per match

Kabuscorp
0.84
Sporting de Benguela
2.72

finishing

Kabuscorp+0.00on par
Sporting de Benguela+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabuscorp ↓

Sporting de Benguela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kabuscorp or draw
90%
Kabuscorp or Sporting de Benguela
81%
Draw or Sporting de Benguela
29%

Winning margin

Kabuscorp wins by 2+
45%
Sporting de Benguela wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kabuscorp 1+ goals
87%
Kabuscorp 2+ goals
60%
Kabuscorp 3+ goals
33%
Sporting de Benguela 1+ goals
46%
Sporting de Benguela 2+ goals
13%
Sporting de Benguela 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Kabuscorp (draw refunded)
87%
Sporting de Benguela (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabuscorp at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Sporting de Benguela away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.72 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabuscorp attack 1.33 + Sporting de Benguela defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 2.03

Sporting de Benguela attack 0.38 + Kabuscorp defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Kabuscorp scores more
71%
level
19%
Sporting de Benguela scores more
10%

Kabuscorp at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Kabuscorp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kabuscorp vs Sporting de Benguela

Kabuscorp beat Sporting de Benguela 2-1 in Girabola on March 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros in Luanda.