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Sporting de Benguela vs Dragão — Girabola 2019

Sporting de Benguela
Sporting de Benguela
FT
1 – 1
Dragão
Dragão
2/12/2023GirabolaGirabola · Round 18Estádio de São Filipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sporting de Benguela52%
×Draw23%
Dragão25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting de Benguela
1.81
Dragão
1.20

Sporting de Benguela creates 51% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sporting de Benguela
0.83
Dragão
0.43

allows per match

Sporting de Benguela
1.97
Dragão
2.79

finishing

Sporting de Benguela+0.00on par
Dragão+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Benguela ↓

Dragão →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sporting de Benguela or draw
75%
Sporting de Benguela or Dragão
77%
Draw or Dragão
48%

Winning margin

Sporting de Benguela wins by 2+
29%
Dragão wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sporting de Benguela 1+ goals
84%
Sporting de Benguela 2+ goals
54%
Sporting de Benguela 3+ goals
27%
Dragão 1+ goals
70%
Dragão 2+ goals
34%
Dragão 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Benguela (draw refunded)
67%
Dragão (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Benguela at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Dragão away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Benguela attack 0.83 + Dragão defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 1.81

Dragão attack 0.43 + Sporting de Benguela defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sporting de Benguela scores more
52%
level
23%
Dragão scores more
25%

Sporting de Benguela at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sporting de Benguela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting de Benguela vs Dragão

Sporting de Benguela and Dragão drew 1-1 in Girabola on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio de São Filipe in Benguela.