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Dragão vs Sporting de Benguela — Girabola 2019

Dragão
Dragão
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting de Benguela
Sporting de Benguela
10/9/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 3Estádio 4 de Janeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dragão62%
×Draw25%
Sporting de Benguela13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dragão
1.58
Sporting de Benguela
0.58

Dragão creates 172% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 29 away

creates per match

Dragão
0.43
Sporting de Benguela
0.38

allows per match

Dragão
0.79
Sporting de Benguela
2.72

finishing

Dragão+0.00on par
Sporting de Benguela+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dragão ↓

Sporting de Benguela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Dragão or draw
87%
Dragão or Sporting de Benguela
75%
Draw or Sporting de Benguela
38%

Winning margin

Dragão wins by 2+
34%
Sporting de Benguela wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Dragão 1+ goals
79%
Dragão 2+ goals
47%
Dragão 3+ goals
21%
Sporting de Benguela 1+ goals
44%
Sporting de Benguela 2+ goals
12%
Sporting de Benguela 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Dragão (draw refunded)
82%
Sporting de Benguela (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dragão at home — creates 0.43, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Sporting de Benguela away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.72 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dragão attack 0.43 + Sporting de Benguela defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sporting de Benguela attack 0.38 + Dragão defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Dragão scores more
62%
level
25%
Sporting de Benguela scores more
13%

Dragão at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Dragão will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dragão vs Sporting de Benguela

Dragão and Sporting de Benguela drew 0-0 in Girabola on October 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio 4 de Janeiro in Uíge.