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Sporting de Benguela vs Bravos do Maquis FC — Girabola 2019

Sporting de Benguela
Sporting de Benguela
FT
0 – 3
Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
11/7/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 6Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sporting de Benguela25%
×Draw26%
Bravos do Maquis FC49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting de Benguela
0.96
Bravos do Maquis FC
1.46

Bravos do Maquis FC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 106 away

creates per match

Sporting de Benguela
0.83
Bravos do Maquis FC
0.95

allows per match

Sporting de Benguela
1.97
Bravos do Maquis FC
1.09

finishing

Sporting de Benguela+0.00on par
Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting de Benguela ↓

Bravos do Maquis FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sporting de Benguela or draw
51%
Sporting de Benguela or Bravos do Maquis FC
74%
Draw or Bravos do Maquis FC
75%

Winning margin

Sporting de Benguela wins by 2+
9%
Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Sporting de Benguela 1+ goals
62%
Sporting de Benguela 2+ goals
25%
Sporting de Benguela 3+ goals
7%
Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
77%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
43%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sporting de Benguela (draw refunded)
34%
Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting de Benguela at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Bravos do Maquis FC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting de Benguela attack 0.83 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.96

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 0.95 + Sporting de Benguela defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sporting de Benguela scores more
25%
level
26%
Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
49%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Sporting de Benguela 0–3 Bravos do Maquis FC

Bravos do Maquis FC beat Sporting de Benguela 3-0 in Girabola on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA in Benguela.