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Bravos do Maquis FC vs Sporting de Benguela — Girabola 2019

Bravos do Maquis FC
Bravos do Maquis FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sporting de Benguela
Sporting de Benguela
12/7/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 15Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Bravos do Maquis FC72%
×Draw19%
Sporting de Benguela9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bravos do Maquis FC
2.01
Sporting de Benguela
0.56

Bravos do Maquis FC creates 259% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 29 away

creates per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
1.30
Sporting de Benguela
0.38

allows per match

Bravos do Maquis FC
0.75
Sporting de Benguela
2.72

finishing

Bravos do Maquis FC+0.00on par
Sporting de Benguela+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bravos do Maquis FC ↓

Sporting de Benguela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bravos do Maquis FC or draw
91%
Bravos do Maquis FC or Sporting de Benguela
81%
Draw or Sporting de Benguela
28%

Winning margin

Bravos do Maquis FC wins by 2+
46%
Sporting de Benguela wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Bravos do Maquis FC 1+ goals
87%
Bravos do Maquis FC 2+ goals
59%
Bravos do Maquis FC 3+ goals
32%
Sporting de Benguela 1+ goals
43%
Sporting de Benguela 2+ goals
11%
Sporting de Benguela 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bravos do Maquis FC (draw refunded)
89%
Sporting de Benguela (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bravos do Maquis FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.75 · 105 matches

Sporting de Benguela away — creates 0.38, concedes 2.72 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bravos do Maquis FC attack 1.30 + Sporting de Benguela defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 2.01

Sporting de Benguela attack 0.38 + Bravos do Maquis FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Bravos do Maquis FC scores more
72%
level
19%
Sporting de Benguela scores more
9%

Bravos do Maquis FC at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Bravos do Maquis FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Bravos do Maquis FC 1–0 Sporting de Benguela

Bravos do Maquis FC beat Sporting de Benguela 1-0 in Girabola on December 7, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Comandante Jones Kufuna Yembe in Moxico.