Sporting Cristal 2–1 U. Catolica: Result & Stats

Sporting Cristal

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

U. Catolica

I. Avila 69'

M. Sosa 27'

C. Montes 25'

1/19/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sporting Cristal76%

×Draw16%

U. Catolica8%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CristalExpected goals in this matchU. Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.63

Sporting Cristal

2.38

U. Catolica

0.63

Sporting Cristal creates 278% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

2.75

creates per match

0.75

0.50

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Sporting Cristal

2.75

U. Catolica

0.75

allows per match

Sporting Cristal

0.50

U. Catolica

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

U. Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal ↓

U. Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal or draw

92%

Sporting Cristal or U. Catolica

84%

Draw or U. Catolica

24%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

53%

U. Catolica wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

91%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

68%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

42%

U. Catolica 1+ goals

47%

U. Catolica 2+ goals

13%

U. Catolica 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

90%

U. Catolica (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

U. Catolica away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal attack 2.75 + U. Catolica defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

U. Catolica attack 0.75 + Sporting Cristal defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Sporting Cristal scores more

76%

level

16%

U. Catolica scores more

8%

Sporting Cristal at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

27'

69'

73'

Sporting

U.

13

2

3

4

6

10

7

5

8

9

11

⚽

31

8

32

21

28

6

55

7

22

Sosa

30

Alarcón

9

Cauterucc

Manager: Paulo Autuori de Mello

Sporting Cristal substitutes

25Távara24Pacheco77Cabellos11Ávila14Duarte3Alcedo4Chávez5Lutiger15Lora38Beltrán34Valle

Manager: Daniel Óscar Garnero

U. Catolica substitutes

SotoFaríasCuevasBelloBernedoAmpueroArancibia