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Sporting Cristal vs U. Catolica — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
U. Catolica
U. Catolica
C. Liza 43'
F. Zampedri 77'
5/5/2022CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio Nacional de Lima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Sporting Cristal47%
×Draw28%
U. Catolica25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Cristal
1.36
U. Catolica
0.91

Sporting Cristal creates 49% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 16 away

creates per match

Sporting Cristal
1.23
U. Catolica
0.63

allows per match

Sporting Cristal
1.18
U. Catolica
1.50

finishing

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par
U. Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal ↓

U. Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal or draw
75%
Sporting Cristal or U. Catolica
72%
Draw or U. Catolica
53%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+
22%
U. Catolica wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals
74%
Sporting Cristal 2+ goals
39%
Sporting Cristal 3+ goals
16%
U. Catolica 1+ goals
60%
U. Catolica 2+ goals
23%
U. Catolica 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)
65%
U. Catolica (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

U. Catolica away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal attack 1.23 + U. Catolica defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

U. Catolica attack 0.63 + Sporting Cristal defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sporting Cristal scores more
47%
level
28%
U. Catolica scores more
25%

Sporting Cristal at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
H. CalcaterraSporting CristalSporting Cristal · M
7.7

Match Events

26'
F. Orellana
43'
C. Liza↳ I. Ávila
72'
R. Rebolledo
73'
L. Melano← C. Cuevas
73'
B. Barticciotto← R. Rebolledo
77'
F. Zampedri↳ B. Barticciotto
80'
F. Zampedri
80'
F. Pacheco← L. Sosa
87'
C. Olivares← I. Ávila
87'
D. Buonanotte← Fabián Orellana
90+3'
A. Hohberg← C. Liza

Possession

52%Sporting

Shots

12Sporting

Pass accuracy

50%Sporting

Statistics

SportingU.
Overview
52%Possession48%
12Total Shots14
7Corners6
8Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots14
1On Target1
7Off Target6
4Blocked7
8Inside Box10
4Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
479Total Passes450
386Accurate Passes363
81%Pass Accuracy81%
Discipline
8Fouls13
0Yellow Cards3
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Sporting Cristal vs U. Catolica

Sporting Cristal and U. Catolica drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 5, 2022.

Goals: C. Liza (43'), F. Zampedri (77').

Sporting Cristal controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Lima in Lima.