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Sporting Cristal vs Sport Rosario — Primera División 2018

Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Sport Rosario
Sport Rosario
2/11/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Torneo de Verano - 2Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sporting Cristal69%
×Draw19%
Sport Rosario13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Cristal
2.20
Sport Rosario
0.82

Sporting Cristal creates 168% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 22 away

creates per match

Sporting Cristal
2.25
Sport Rosario
0.82

allows per match

Sporting Cristal
0.82
Sport Rosario
2.14

finishing

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par
Sport Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal ↓

Sport Rosario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal or draw
87%
Sporting Cristal or Sport Rosario
81%
Draw or Sport Rosario
31%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+
45%
Sport Rosario wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals
89%
Sporting Cristal 2+ goals
64%
Sporting Cristal 3+ goals
37%
Sport Rosario 1+ goals
56%
Sport Rosario 2+ goals
20%
Sport Rosario 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)
84%
Sport Rosario (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.82 · 152 matches

Sport Rosario away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.14 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal attack 2.25 + Sport Rosario defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.20

Sport Rosario attack 0.82 + Sporting Cristal defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Sporting Cristal scores more
69%
level
19%
Sport Rosario scores more
13%

Sporting Cristal at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Sporting Cristal 4–1 Sport Rosario

Sporting Cristal beat Sport Rosario 4-1 in Primera División on February 11, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Gallardo in Lima.