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Sport Rosario vs Sporting Cristal — Primera División 2018

Sport Rosario
Sport Rosario
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal
3/31/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Torneo de Verano - 9Rosas Pampa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sport Rosario34%
×Draw24%
Sporting Cristal43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sport Rosario
1.44
Sporting Cristal
1.65

Sporting Cristal creates 15% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 156 away

creates per match

Sport Rosario
1.64
Sporting Cristal
1.79

allows per match

Sport Rosario
1.50
Sporting Cristal
1.23

finishing

Sport Rosario+0.00on par
Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Rosario ↓

Sporting Cristal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sport Rosario or draw
57%
Sport Rosario or Sporting Cristal
76%
Draw or Sporting Cristal
66%

Winning margin

Sport Rosario wins by 2+
15%
Sporting Cristal wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sport Rosario 1+ goals
76%
Sport Rosario 2+ goals
42%
Sport Rosario 3+ goals
18%
Sporting Cristal 1+ goals
81%
Sporting Cristal 2+ goals
49%
Sporting Cristal 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Sport Rosario (draw refunded)
44%
Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Rosario at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

Sporting Cristal away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.23 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Rosario attack 1.64 + Sporting Cristal defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sporting Cristal attack 1.79 + Sport Rosario defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sport Rosario scores more
34%
level
24%
Sporting Cristal scores more
43%

Sporting Cristal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sport Rosario vs Sporting Cristal

Sporting Cristal beat Sport Rosario 1-0 in Primera División on March 31, 2018.

The match was played at Rosas Pampa in Huaraz.