Sporting Cristal 5–0 Sport Huancayo: Result & Stats

Sporting Cristal

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sport Huancayo

Y. Yotun 90' (pen)

I. Avila 67'

C. Gonzales 50', 6'

M. Araujo 16'

7/30/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 3Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Sporting Cristal66%

×Draw19%

Sport Huancayo14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CristalExpected goals in this matchSport Huancayo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.92

Sporting Cristal

2.21

Sport Huancayo

0.92

Sporting Cristal creates 140% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

2.57

creates per match

0.89

0.94

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Sporting Cristal

2.57

Sport Huancayo

0.89

allows per match

Sporting Cristal

0.94

Sport Huancayo

1.86

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Sporting Cristal+0.30scores more

Sport Huancayo-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal ↓

Sport Huancayo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal or draw

86%

Sporting Cristal or Sport Huancayo

81%

Draw or Sport Huancayo

34%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

43%

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

89%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

65%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

38%

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

60%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

23%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

82%

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.94 · 15 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.86 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal attack 2.57 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.21

Sport Huancayo attack 0.89 + Sporting Cristal defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Sporting Cristal scores more

66%

level

19%

Sport Huancayo scores more

14%

Sporting Cristal at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Gonzales

Sporting Cristal · F

9.5

Match Events

6'

C. Gonzales↳ N. Pasquini

16'

M. Araujo↳ M. Tavara

35'

Hugo Ángeles

41'

Martín Távara

46'

A. J. Posito Olazabal← M. Araujo

46'

S. Barboza← J. Madrid

46'

A. Perez← M. Carranza

46'

E. Villar← D. Carabano

50'

C. Gonzales↳ M. Castro

54'

Ricardo Salcedo

66'

J. Herrera← H. Angeles

66'

P. Magallanes← N. Lujan

67'

I. Avila↳ M. Tavara

72'

Y. Yotun← M. Tavara

76'

Piero Magallanes

84'

M. Rodriguez← I. Avila

85'

C. Cabellos← M. Castro

85'

D. Ballumbrosio← L. Sosa

89'

Alejandro PósitoPenalty confirmed

90+4'

90+1'

90+5'

90+1'

90+5'

90'

Y. YotunPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingSport

Overview

66%Possession34%

19Total Shots11

2.83Expected Goals (xG)0.27

4Corners4

18Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots11

7On Target1

6Off Target6

6Blocked4

12Inside Box5

7Outside Box6

Passing

66%Possession34%

474Total Passes233

418Accurate Passes175

88%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls13

2Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards1

1Offsides1