Sport Huancayo 2–1 Sporting Cristal: Result & Stats

Sport Huancayo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sporting Cristal

F. Caballero 77'

R. Salcedo 54'

J. Moretti 82'

2/28/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 5Estadio Huancayo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Sport Huancayo42%

×Draw25%

Sporting Cristal33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport HuancayoExpected goals in this matchSporting Cristal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.28

Sport Huancayo

1.48

Sporting Cristal

1.28

Sport Huancayo creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 18 away

1.54

creates per match

1.44

1.13

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Sport Huancayo

1.54

Sporting Cristal

1.44

allows per match

Sport Huancayo

1.13

Sporting Cristal

1.43

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

+0.56scores more than expected

finishing

Sport Huancayo+0.38scores more

Sporting Cristal+0.56scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport Huancayo ↓

Sporting Cristal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sport Huancayo or draw

67%

Sport Huancayo or Sporting Cristal

75%

Draw or Sporting Cristal

58%

Winning margin

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

20%

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

77%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

43%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

19%

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

72%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

37%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

56%

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport Huancayo at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.13 · 13 matches

Sporting Cristal away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.43 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport Huancayo attack 1.54 + Sporting Cristal defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sporting Cristal attack 1.44 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sport Huancayo scores more

42%

level

25%

Sporting Cristal scores more

33%

Sport Huancayo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sport Huancayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

R. Salcedo

Sport Huancayo · M

8.2

Match Events

15'

Gustavo Cazonatti

21'

Javier SanguinettiGoal cancelled

25'

Yorleys Mena

32'

Jeremy Rostaing

45+2'

Ricardo Salcedo

46'

R. Campodonico← N. Lujan

46'

M. Castro← L. Iberico

46'

L. Sosa← C. Benavente

53'

Christofer GonzálesMissed penalty

54'

R. Salcedo↳ J. J. Canela Torres

56'

I. Avila← D. Otoya

66'

J. Barreda← J. Rostaing

67'

J. Moretti← J. Gonzalez

72'

Marcelo Gaona

75'

D. Carabano← E. Villar

75'

F. Caballero← Y. Mena

77'

F. Caballero↳ D. Carabano

80'

Franco Caballero

81'

L. Villar← J. Sanguinetti

82'

J. Moretti↳ G. Cazonatti

85'

G. Castillo← I. Wisdom

86'

Jimmy Valoyes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportSporting

Overview

47%Possession53%

24Total Shots7

2.68Expected Goals (xG)0.98

8Corners2

11Fouls13

Shots

24Total Shots7

9On Target4

11Off Target3

4Blocked0

15Inside Box2

9Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

290Total Passes357

242Accurate Passes305

83%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls13

6Yellow Cards1

4Offsides3

Match Recap: Sport Huancayo vs Sporting Cristal

Sport Huancayo beat Sporting Cristal 2-1 in Primera División on February 28, 2026.

Goals: R. Salcedo (54'), F. Caballero (77'), J. Moretti (82').

Sporting Cristal controlled possession (53%) and registered 7 shots to 24.

The match was played at Estadio Huancayo in Huancayo.

Sport Huancayo vs Sporting Cristal — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sport Huancayo vs Sporting Cristal