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Sporting Cristal vs Real Garcilaso — Primera División 2018

Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
6/6/2018Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 5Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Sporting Cristal61%
×Draw22%
Real Garcilaso17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sporting Cristal
1.92
Real Garcilaso
0.90

Sporting Cristal creates 113% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 39 away

creates per match

Sporting Cristal
2.25
Real Garcilaso
0.97

allows per match

Sporting Cristal
0.82
Real Garcilaso
1.59

finishing

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par
Real Garcilaso+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal ↓

Real Garcilaso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal or draw
83%
Sporting Cristal or Real Garcilaso
78%
Draw or Real Garcilaso
39%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+
36%
Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals
85%
Sporting Cristal 2+ goals
57%
Sporting Cristal 3+ goals
30%
Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
59%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
23%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)
78%
Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.82 · 152 matches

Real Garcilaso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal attack 2.25 + Real Garcilaso defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.92

Real Garcilaso attack 0.97 + Sporting Cristal defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sporting Cristal scores more
61%
level
22%
Real Garcilaso scores more
17%

Sporting Cristal at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sporting Cristal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sporting Cristal vs Real Garcilaso

Sporting Cristal beat Real Garcilaso 5-1 in Primera División on June 6, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Gallardo in Lima.