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Real Garcilaso vs Sporting Cristal — Primera División 2018

Real Garcilaso
Real Garcilaso
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sporting Cristal
Sporting Cristal
4/19/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 10Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Real Garcilaso40%
×Draw25%
Sporting Cristal34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Garcilaso
1.46
Sporting Cristal
1.32

Real Garcilaso creates 11% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 156 away

creates per match

Real Garcilaso
1.69
Sporting Cristal
1.79

allows per match

Real Garcilaso
0.85
Sporting Cristal
1.23

finishing

Real Garcilaso+0.00on par
Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Garcilaso ↓

Sporting Cristal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Real Garcilaso or draw
66%
Real Garcilaso or Sporting Cristal
75%
Draw or Sporting Cristal
60%

Winning margin

Real Garcilaso wins by 2+
19%
Sporting Cristal wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Real Garcilaso 1+ goals
77%
Real Garcilaso 2+ goals
43%
Real Garcilaso 3+ goals
18%
Sporting Cristal 1+ goals
73%
Sporting Cristal 2+ goals
38%
Sporting Cristal 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Real Garcilaso (draw refunded)
54%
Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Garcilaso at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.85 · 39 matches

Sporting Cristal away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.23 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Garcilaso attack 1.69 + Sporting Cristal defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sporting Cristal attack 1.79 + Real Garcilaso defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Garcilaso scores more
40%
level
25%
Sporting Cristal scores more
34%

Real Garcilaso at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Garcilaso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Garcilaso vs Sporting Cristal

Real Garcilaso and Sporting Cristal drew 1-1 in Primera División on April 19, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.