Sporting Cristal 2–3 Palmeiras: Result & Stats

Sporting Cristal

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Palmeiras

M. Tavara 83'

J. Pretell 67'

R. Rios 90'

J. Piquerez 82' (pen)

Estevao 38'

4/3/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 1Estadio Nacional de Lima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sporting Cristal24%

×Draw25%

Palmeiras51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting CristalExpected goals in this matchPalmeiras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.60

Sporting Cristal

1.01

Palmeiras

1.60

Palmeiras creates 58% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 42 away

1.23

creates per match

2.02

1.18

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Sporting Cristal

1.23

Palmeiras

2.02

allows per match

Sporting Cristal

1.18

Palmeiras

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Palmeiras+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Cristal ↓

Palmeiras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sporting Cristal or draw

49%

Sporting Cristal or Palmeiras

75%

Draw or Palmeiras

76%

Winning margin

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

9%

Palmeiras wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

64%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

27%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

8%

Palmeiras 1+ goals

80%

Palmeiras 2+ goals

47%

Palmeiras 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

32%

Palmeiras (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Cristal at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

Palmeiras away — creates 2.02, concedes 0.79 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Cristal attack 1.23 + Palmeiras defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.01

Palmeiras attack 2.02 + Sporting Cristal defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sporting Cristal scores more

24%

level

25%

Palmeiras scores more

51%

Palmeiras at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Palmeiras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

M. Tavara

Sporting Cristal · M

7.9

Match Events

12'

38'

45'

45+1'

57'

57'

J. Lora← M. Cauteruccio

57'

C. Cabellos← R. Lutiger

61'

Bruno Fuchs

65'

Mayke← Bruno Fuchs

65'

R. Rios← Felipe Anderson

65'

J. Lopez← Vitor Roque

67'

J. Pretell↳ M. Tavara

71'

A. Giay←

75'

Catriel Cabellos

82'

J. PiquerezPenalty

83'

M. Tavara↳ C. Cabellos

87'

M. Sosa← M. Castro

87'

I. Wisdom← J. Pretell

88'

J. Alarcon← I. Avila

88'

Luighi← Lucas Evangelista

90'

R. Rios↳ Luighi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SportingPalmeiras

Overview

40%Possession60%

14Total Shots19

0.94Expected Goals (xG)3.51

7Corners6

16Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots19

7On Target7

4Off Target8

3Blocked4

6Inside Box14

8Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

243Total Passes373

175Accurate Passes312

72%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

-0.65Goals Prevented-0.65

Discipline

16Fouls10

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Sporting Cristal vs Palmeiras

Palmeiras beat Sporting Cristal 3-2 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 3, 2025.

Goals: Estevao (38'), J. Pretell (67'), J. Piquerez (82' pen), M. Tavara (83'), R. Rios (90').

Palmeiras controlled possession (60%) and registered 19 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Nacional de Lima in Lima.

Sporting Cristal vs Palmeiras — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sporting Cristal vs Palmeiras