Palmeiras 2–1 Sporting Cristal: Result & Stats

Palmeiras

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sporting Cristal

J. Lopez 80' (pen)

Murilo 27'

J. Gonzalez 41'

4/16/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Allianz Parque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Palmeiras74%

×Draw16%

Sporting Cristal10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalmeirasExpected goals in this matchSporting Cristal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

0.76

Palmeiras

2.46

Sporting Cristal

0.76

Palmeiras creates 224% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 24 away

2.64

creates per match

0.92

0.60

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Palmeiras

2.64

Sporting Cristal

0.92

allows per match

Palmeiras

0.60

Sporting Cristal

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Palmeiras+0.00on par

Sporting Cristal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras ↓

Sporting Cristal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Palmeiras or draw

90%

Palmeiras or Sporting Cristal

84%

Draw or Sporting Cristal

26%

Winning margin

Palmeiras wins by 2+

52%

Sporting Cristal wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Palmeiras 1+ goals

91%

Palmeiras 2+ goals

70%

Palmeiras 3+ goals

44%

Sporting Cristal 1+ goals

53%

Sporting Cristal 2+ goals

18%

Sporting Cristal 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras (draw refunded)

89%

Sporting Cristal (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.60 · 42 matches

Sporting Cristal away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.29 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras attack 2.64 + Sporting Cristal defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.46

Sporting Cristal attack 0.92 + Palmeiras defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Palmeiras scores more

74%

level

16%

Sporting Cristal scores more

10%

Palmeiras at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Palmeiras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

Murilo

Palmeiras · D

9.0

Match Events

27'

Murilo↳ Allan Elias

41'

J. Gonzalez↳ I. Avila

59'

F. Vizeu← I. Avila

59'

S. Gonzalez← M. Castro

64'

José LópezGoal cancelled

70'

Arthur Gabriel← A. Giay

70'

Luighi← R. Sosa

70'

J. Cuenca← J. Gonzalez

73'

Santiago González

77'

Arthur GabrielPenalty confirmed

79'

Diego Enríquez

80'

J. LopezPenalty

85'

C. Benavente← L. Sosa

85'

M. Rodriguez← G. Cazonatti

88'

Felipe Anderson← J. Arias

88'

Lucas Evangelista← Allan Elias

90+3'

Felipe Vizeu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalmeirasSporting

Overview

65%Possession35%

23Total Shots8

2.16Expected Goals (xG)0.72

8Corners3

4Fouls9

Shots

23Total Shots8

6On Target2

9Off Target3

8Blocked3

9Inside Box3

14Outside Box5

Passing

65%Possession35%

478Total Passes260

413Accurate Passes192

86%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

-0.06Goals Prevented-0.06

Discipline

4Fouls9

0Yellow Cards3

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal

Palmeiras beat Sporting Cristal 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 16, 2026.

Goals: Murilo (27'), J. Gonzalez (41'), J. Lopez (80' pen).

Palmeiras controlled possession (65%) and registered 23 shots to 8.

The match was played at Allianz Parque in Sao Paulo.

Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Palmeiras vs Sporting Cristal